K Nicole Jones Presents: Crib Notes

Entries tagged as ‘mortgages’

Bringing the Pain and Sharing the Consequences

November 14, 2008 · 4 Comments

by Guest Blogger: Kenneth Stewart

If it is true that the housing bubble was the root cause of the financial crisis, it seems an obvious solution would be to delay an immediate devaluation of housing stock, based on the premise that home values could recover nicely over time if corrective housing policies are put into place.  Financial institutions are being hit by the double-whammy of mortgage foreclosures, and expectations that future foreclosure rates will be even worse, which devalues a wide range of real estate-related assets.  As the foreclosure scenario plays out, home values take another hit, and a vicious cycle is perpetuated.  The answer to the question of how to halt this vicious cycle may lie in a commonly used tool in the affordable housing field: low-interest rate, deferred second mortgages. 

 

The mortgage program would work as follows.  A homeowner with a mortgage they can no longer afford would go to their lender with a proposal: refinance my loan at a principle balance and interest rate I can afford, and I will get a second mortgage from my local government/nonprofit program administrator such that the combined refinancing proceeds will equal 90% of the current outstanding balance.  In other words, take a 10% loss and convert your asset from a non-performing loan to a well-underwritten conventional mortgage.  Localities have already been granted funding in the recently enacted Housing Bill that can be used to fund second mortgages.  The Treasury Department would be well-advised to dump a significant portion of the Wall Street bailout package ($250 billion would be helpful) into this kind of initiative. The government would be directly investing in citizens and communities, as opposed to risky, complex securities, and banks and financial institutions would be clear indirect beneficiaries by limiting the loss of loan principal. 

 

The program would have to be limited to homeowners who could afford a conventional first mortgage of at least 60 percent of their current balance.  If they are unable to afford that minimum, it means they could never afford the home in the first place.  The government should not attempt to provide a stop-loss for such poor decision making, and possible fraud, on the part of the parties involved. Where the program is applied, lenders would still face a write-down in various residential assets–albeit smaller at 10% write down — plus the loss of any prepayment penalties that would compensate them for the loss of future up-ward adjusting interest rates.    If we couple this with some type of moratorium on the amount of commission that can be earned by realtors and appraisers involved  in the sale of foreclosed properties, then the parties who came together to create the mess will have to share in the pain of correcting their mistakes.    A salary cap for the executive leadership of participating financial institutions would complete the circle.

 

As tempting as it may be to  leave those responsible for the housing bubble at the mercy of the market, the best approach would be a program that targets the root cause of the current crisis, through direct investments in the hardest-hit communities. A well-structured nationwide second mortgage program could achieve many important results.  Banks would benefit from having hundreds of thousands of loans refinanced with the lowest possible loss of principle, cities would stabilize neighborhoods and protect their tax base by keeping homeowners in place and avoiding foreclosure sales that would drive market values down even further, homeowners would benefit by keeping their home and getting some protection as related to their equity position, and local housing agencies and their nonprofit partners would benefit from having a role in closing and servicing second mortgages that would give them a new source of revenue, as well as a vested interest in getting home values back up to maximize recovery of  funds invested for the second mortgages.   Such a program would still require billions of dollars in federal outlays, but it would be through a mechanism that allocates the pain as well as the benefits as broadly as possible, while focusing efforts on stabilizing home values – which is the root cause of the problem.

 

Mr. Stewart currently underwrites equity investments in affordable housing projects for Enterprise Community Investments in Columbia, MD.  Prior to going to Enterprise, he was with the Prince George’s County Department of Housing and Community Development (DHCD), serving first as Deputy Director for Capital Markets, and later as the Deputy Director of the Redevelopment Authority, where he had primary responsibility for the tax-exempt bond,, homeownership, and the federal HOME block grant programs.  Prior to his appointment at PG-DHCD, Mr. Stewart served as Director of Public Finance for the D.C. Housing Finance Agency, where he was responsible for processing, underwriting, structuring and closing transactions involving the issuance of over $300 million in tax-exempt bonds. He holds a B.A. from the University of Denver, (Denver, Colorado), and a Master of Arts in Public Administration from Howard University, (Washington, D.C.).

 

 

 

 

 

Categories: Finance · Public Policy
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Nothing Going On But the Rent

July 31, 2008 · 2 Comments

When I first moved to Baltimore, I decided to rent a place to decide if I wanted to stay. As the months have passed the idea of buying became ever more prevalent in my mind–especially as prices started to decline.

But, alas, I have decided to remain a renter. And it has nothing to do with the fact that bad roofing is making it rain in the supposedly newly renovated home in which I currently reside (but let me tell you it did get the idea rolling).

While I am a strong proponent of homeownership, I think that this market is best if you are planning to stay for a long time. If you are a prospective homebuyer looking to do it the “old school way”–buy a home to raise a family and pass it down from generation to generation, by all means do so. But if you still think that you can buy something and in the near term realize appreciation, I think you are in for a world of hurt.

Despite what oh-so many rosie -colored-glasses-wearing financial “guru’s” say, the bottom is not close by.  I more closely agree with others that we have a ways to go–maybe not $215k for many houses to $70k, but definitely below the current median price of $200k. I think it’s going to have to go back below $200k before we may have hit the end of it—perhaps 170k. (of course, some relatively impervious markets like NYC will add a bit of cushion to the decline.)

Plus, despite what all those “why rent?” commercials say, renting can be very appropriate. Often the maintenance costs and usually the tax costs are passed on to the homeowner–while your rent may subsidize these costs, by in large you are not paying for them. And it is great for a rolling stone like me–who knows I might finally decide to live in Brooklyn or move off to New Orleans. Unloading a house in a market like this is a fool’s errand. Plus, if you have better things to do with your cash (not including buying a big screen TV) in an era where it will probably cost you at least 20% down to buy (not including FHA) then no time like the present time to do it.

In the meantime, I’m sure I can figure out how to grow a vegetable garden wherever I rent just like I could if I bought something. 

 

Categories: Finance · Public Policy
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Huffing and Puffing and Giving In (and other mid-week tidbits)

July 23, 2008 · 1 Comment

As the housing market continues to give many of us in and outside of the real estate business agina, it seems Mr. Bush has decided to back off his veto threat of the housing stimulus bill

I guess just the unsubstantiated rumor that Fannie or Freddie to could be vulnerable to a collapse was enough to make him decide his legacy was already tarnished enough.

The news of the President’s decision to nix the veto threat is making the folks on Wall Street breath a little more freely. ( I can see them chair dancing right now. Ok, maybe just a little shimmy)

Perhaps, that is why the gas station on the corner was able to drop my brand from $4.25 a gallon to $4.19…I better go fill up before they come back to their senses.

Speaking of bank collapses, it seems IndyMac is set to be purchased by Prospect Mortgage.

Now, who really believes that Prospect is going to keep the banking services in tact???

And last, but not least, Secretary Paulson says we can exit this housing mess in a “matter of months.”

If I was a betting person, I’d bet not.

Categories: News
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Mr. Bush’s Train to Homeownership Goes Bust

June 25, 2008 · 3 Comments

Back in 2002, President Bush reiterated his goal to make America a “nation of Homeowners”. In a summer 2002 press conference, the President pushed the goal of 5.5 million homeowners by 2010. By 2006, homeownership rates reached a record high–68.5%–and the President’s dream was on the horizon.

But not today, my friends. That train has left the station, and the President is still wondering how the train switched tracks.  According to June 22’s NY Times:

The percentage of homes headed by homeowners dropped from 69.1% to 67.8% this year, which sounds modest, but is, in fact, the biggest decline in 20 years…By extension, the percentage of households headed by renters increased to 32.2 percent, from 30.9 percent.

Clearly, The goal failed. And perhaps, rightfully so. Not everyone wants to nor should be a homeowner. (One day I will get to this topic as well)

But why? 

In my opinion, speculation has the most to do with this mess. In 2002, the country began to recover from the economic downturn of 2001 fueled by 911. But, places like NYC, DC, and Southern California, began to realize an outrageous boom.  Some places, like Las Vegas and the Denver area saw appreciation of 80% in a 5 year period (2002-2007).  That boom fueled a manic race to by a home in these areas. The rate of appreciation gave way to the “get rich quick” model–as more people bought homes for back end gains than for the purpose of living the homeownership dream. 

For the last decade, House=Investment. House has not not equaled Home. Yield of cash invested. That’s what has been all about. Look at the popularity of shows like Flip this House. Everybody, thought they could get rich and fast. And what do we have to show for it?  Like I and many others have been saying for the past 6 years, just what was to be expected–a shredded real estate market, and a number of communities reeling from vacancies.

Yet it was not so long ago that a house was a home first, and a nest egg second. It seems that this sort of idea remained more or less the case in soft markets. Like my friend and mentor, John Schoeniger, says about soft markets ”the bubble passed [the soft markets] by… You take your 3% appreciation , you just pay down your mortgage to 0.” In these places like Cleveland, Detroit and Pittsburgh (foreclosure there has had a lot more to do with economy and less so with speculation though still a factor), the goal is to pay off your mortgage. Its a long term investment. You raise your kids there. You pass it on to someone when you pass. In most cases, your house is not your bank, unless its a last resort.  Perhaps, there is a little lesson to learn there–because more times than not the profit margin on your home won’t be a windfall.

Maybe it was a baby boomer and WWII thing to believe that house was a home.  After all it was the GI bill that steered many to homeownership post war. You were purchasing a home back then. Not a bank.

Maybe, now that the glamoritization of homeownership is coming to an end, people will see that owning real estate is a much more complicated undertaking than the latest Ditech or Countrywide commercial makes it. And that, in most cases you have to be willing to be in it for the long haul.

Categories: A Cacophony Of Community Issues
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Fannie Mae Caves…

May 17, 2008 · 4 Comments

Great news coming out of the housing policy world. It seems housing policy advocates have one a victory regarding Fannie Mae’s changes to the declining market policy.

And this is fabulous news for low and moderate income home buyers and others who might be looking to buy a home in markets that might have been percieved as declining…

Sort of.

Categories: Finance · News · Public Policy
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Upside Down Does Not= Walking Away (Necessarily)

May 12, 2008 · 3 Comments

I have argued this point professionally, in my own research, and sitting around the dinner table.

Owner-Occupants are not necessarily walking away from their homes because they are upside down, i.e negative equity ( Thanks Tom). Just like they have not in the past.

If they have the means, they are staying put.

After all, before the bubble, most folks who were purchasing homes to live in them saw them as long term investments.

Or places to raise families, have children, and do never ending yard work.

Categories: Finance · News
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To Pay Rent or Eat? That is the Question? (And other interesting midweek tidbits)

April 30, 2008 · 2 Comments

  • It seems that 1 in 3 New Yorkers is paying more than 50% of their take home pay in rent. If you’ve ever looked at the Real Estate section in a New York paper or been faced with the unfortunate task all NY’ers dread–looking for a no-fee apartment that isn’t rat infested, this is not a surprise.  I bet if we did a national study most people are paying more than the 30% standard applied in measuring housing affordability.

Sorry, NYC, we know how you like to be the exception to the rule. This time you simply prove the fallacy of the rule

 

 

 

 

Well, I gotta go pay the man for the roof over my head and by some more Ramen.  Anybody got any positive housing news? Please share.

Categories: Finance · News · Public Policy
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